ForexChief - Global

⚡ JPMorgan and «empty» gold: the market manipulator received a prison termn⠀n⚠️ Wheel of justice is turning slowly, but the scandalous investigation is finally over: the former head of the JPMorgan Chase & Co division, Michael Novak, has finally heard his verdict on 13 counts. He has become one of the highest-ranking bankers convicted in the US since the financial crisis and faces the prospect of spending more than 20 years in prison.n⠀nThe prosecution took three weeks of court hearings: Michael Novak and Greg Smith are charged with racketeering conspiracy, price manipulation, wire fraud, merchandise fraud and spoofing from 2008 to 2016.n⠀nRumours of JPMorgan's «dirty» practices have roamed the markets for more than 10 years. Alex Gerko, the head of an algorithmic trading firm, complained about Smith's gold market activities back in 2012 to CME Group Inc. In 2018, an official hunt began for traders who created thousands of fake trades but never intended to execute them.n⠀nA team of data scientists analyzed billions of transactions, and the result was brought to JPMorgan. Head of department Novak and Smith, a gold trader, placed large buy/sell pending orders to push the price in a direction favourable to the bank. These orders were cancelled as quickly as they appeared.n⠀nThe main victims of such operations were traders of HFT strategies, although some figures, such as Jeffrey Ruffo, were involved in fraud on behalf of various hedge funds. JPMorgan has already paid $920 million to settle the charges against the corporation.n⠀nNovak's sentence is a great example of a successful fight against illegal market practices: over the past two years, 10 traders from five different banks have been prosecuted in the United States.n⠀nBut even after such repression, spoofing is actively used in the market, so be careful.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #JPMorgan #forexnews #gold #MichaelNovak #CMEGroupInc #GregSmith #nft #AlexGerko

🇬🇧 British job market stabilizes, but Liz Truss threatens to destroy the poundn⠀n📊 The statistics confirmed the signs of cooling of the labour market. Businesses have become more cautious about hiring and retaining the bulk of their workers during a record fall in base wages. However, inflation continues to eat into wages.n⠀nBritain emerged from the pandemic with unemployment at its lowest level since 1974, largely due to a shortage of foreign workers. The current unemployment rate of 3.8% is at a minimum. Recall: BOE expects that the unemployment rate will begin to rise from mid-2023, and in three years it will increase to 6.3%.n⠀nWages before bonuses were 4.7% higher than a year ago, but CPI-adjusted regular income fell 4.1%. Large employers increase wages, but still do not keep up with inflation. BOE predicts that price growth will exceed 13% this year, more than six times the 2% target.n⠀nAgainst this backdrop, Liz Truss, who is leading the race for prime minister, is calling for a review of the BOE's mandate and a new money supply target. Truss and her leadership allies have turned the central bank into a political punching bag, and blame Bailey and his colleagues for pushing inflation to a 40-year high.n⠀nMarkets are scared by the fact that, if Truss takes office, he could abandon his anti-inflation policy and recommend that politicians use tools that were discredited in the 1980s. Any attempts at confrontation with the BOE will immediately have a negative impact on the dynamics of the pound and government bonds. As a result of the protracted Brexit, there is still an outflow of assets from the UK, so the unreasonable policy of the new prime minister will be another step toward reducing investor confidence in British assets.n⠀nPound, in this case, you can only sympathize.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #LizTruss #Bailey #forexnews #boe #BritishJobMarket #pound #worldnews

🇨🇳 China lowered interest rates: unexpected but logicaln⠀n🏦 The People's Bank of China disappointed analysts and cut the medium-term lending rate, at which it provides annual loans to the banking system, by 10 basis points. China's economy barely dodged a contraction in the second quarter, as it struggles with a series of damaging lockdowns. Despite the economic impact of the lockdowns, Beijing appears hesitant to scale back its strict zero-COVID policy.n⠀nOfficial statistics showed consumer and manufacturing activity worse than expected, as the pace of the country's economic recovery after large-scale lockdowns is slowing down. Retail sales grew by just 2.7%, while industrial production, which was the driving force behind growth at the start of the pandemic, rose 3.8% in July. Analysts had forecast growth of 5% and 4.6%, respectively.n⠀nAnother critical indicator - youth unemployment - showed an «anti-record» (19.9%), which increases political pressure on the Xi Jinping administration. Politicians have begun to argue about over-stimulating the economy with too much liquidity, although the real risk is a slow pace of economic recovery.n⠀nIn addition to endless quarantines, the world's second economy is also suffering from a crisis in the real estate market: developers simply do not have enough money to complete projects. China intends to expand the use of special local government bonds and new loan guarantees (about 3.45 trillion yuan). On this information, the shares of some players in the Chinese real estate market have already grown by 10-15%, although it is unlikely that they will be able to maintain new levels since the incentive plan provides for gradual investments over three years.n⠀nAn economic slowdown in China will lead to a looser monetary policy, but most experts are pessimistic about the scale and speed of Beijing's response. Let's see what happens.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #BankOfChina #forexnews #AsianMarkets #worldnews #XiJinping #Beijing

⚠️ Another law against monsters or inflation protectionn⠀n🥊 American corporations are preparing for a tax attack: the new Inflation Reduction Act is supposed to add at least $750 million in tax deductions to the budget. Large public companies, which report an average of more than $1 billion in pre-tax earnings over three years, are being hit.n⠀nOfficially, the new law calls for cuts in health care spending and combating climate change. For example, corporations such as Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) or Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) will pay a minimum cash income tax of 15%. This tax is expected to raise an additional $222 billion over 10 years and $35 billion as early as 2023.n⠀nInvestment analysts at Wolfe Research screened 35 US companies with an income tax rate of less than 15%. The list of potential “victims” includes Shopify (NYSE: Shop), UBS Group (NYSE: UBS), American International Group (NYSE: AIG), and Nvidia (NYSE: NVDA). Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD).n⠀nMost of these companies now pay taxes in the 8% to 5.2% range, although even Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), which pays a cash rate of just 3.6%, is reporting earnings of over $1 billion.n⠀nAccording to the note, for companies with foreign parent companies, the tax will be applied at the level of US subsidiaries if consolidated profits are $1 billion, with $100 million of profits to be recorded in the US.n⠀nThe impact of the new law on the dynamics of shares is still difficult to assess. The first result can be seen only in the reporting for the first quarter of next year, but companies are already starting to optimize their financial flows. Various options are being considered for restructuring and moving production outside the US tax jurisdictionn⠀nWe recommend that you compile your watchlist of the companies that you think will be the most “affected” by the new tax and carefully monitor all information. And then you will be able to react in time if speculators dare to hype on this topic.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #nasdaq #tsla #amzn #nyse #ubs #nvda #aig #amd #mrna #forexnews #Shopify #stocks #worldnews

💱 Target levels and forecast for the week 15.08 – 19.08n⠀nRecall the fundamental events that you need to pay attention to (GMT 0 time):n⠀nTue, 16nAUD: RBA Meeting Minutes (01:30)nGBP: Employment Change; Labour Productivity; Unemployment Rate (06:00)nEUR: Trade Balance, ZEW Economic Sentiment (09:00)nUSD: Building Permits (12:30); Industrial Production (13:15); API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30)nNZD: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index (15:00); PPI Input (22:45)nJPY: Trade Balance; Exports (23:50)n⠀nWed, 17nNZD: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (02:00); Press Conference (03:00)nGBP: CPI, PPI Input ( (06:00)nUSD: Retail Sales (12:30); Cushing Crude Oil, Crude Oil Inventories (14:30); FOMC Meeting Minutes (18:00)nEUR: GDP (09:00)n⠀nThu, 18nAUD: Employment Change, Full Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (01:30)nEUR: Core CPI, CPI (09:00)nUSD: Initial Jobless Claims (12:30)nNZD: Trade Balance (22:45)nJPY: National Core CPI (23:30)n⠀nFri, 19nGBP: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales (06:00)n⠀nFor more news − see Economic Calendar.n⠀nEUR/USDnBalance of volumes is shifted down. It is necessary to monitor the price behaviour in the protection zone 1.0350-1.0420. If the bears do not break the level of 1.0350, then the buyers will seize the initiative and will be able to develop an upward movement to 1.0550-1.06.n⠀nGBP/USDnSales priority is maintained. Purchases will be relevant only on a confident breakdown of 1.2280-1.2350 and a positive fundamental background. Speculators may become more active in the publication of a report on the labour market.n⠀nUSD/JPYnBalance of volumes is shifting down, but fundamental factors are needed for a confident breakdown of the key level 132. We pay attention to the publication of data on the trade balance and CPI. Buys are relevant only on a confident breakdown of the protection zone 137.n⠀nXTI/USDnBalance of volumes is shifted upwards, but the positive reports of the EIA and OPEC are not enough to break through the key zone of 95.00-96.50. There are no fundamental factors this week, so a downward correction to 87.50 and below is possible.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#EURUSD #GBPUSD #USDJPY #XTIUSD #Profits #ForexChief #forexsignals #MarketFocus #forexnews #GlobalDairyTrade #zew #Pound #dollar #fomc #worldnews #forexmarket

📌 Shares of General Electric: buying before the disastern⠀n⚡ General Electric completes the division of property and the dismantling of global targets. After more than 20 years of decline, GE's aviation, energy and medical businesses will be split into separate companies. A very sad end for an industrial giant ruined by its own marketing mistakes.n⠀nBy the end of 2018, GE's market capitalization was less than $70 billion (up from $500 billion in 2000) and the company had lost its status as the largest industrial stock. GE shareholders lost 7% a year, while even the S&P 500 returned about 5% a year over the same period.n⠀nOn November 9, 2021, General Electric announced the plan of division into three main industries. The market perked up − on that day, stocks rose above $116. But at the same time, the Fed began to actively «worry» about inflation and announced a rate hike. As a result, GE shares have fallen about 22% since the end of November, while, for example, S&P industrial stocks have lost an average of 5%, and the S&P500 index has fallen by 9%.n⠀nThe presentation of GE Healthcare is expected in early 2023, and then GE Aerospace and GE Renewable Energy will enter the market under the new name GE Vernova. New companies are expected to compete and do business more efficiently, meaning they can be worth much more in the stock market than they would be in a bulky conglomerate.n⠀nIf you try to estimate the amount of net debt and other liabilities of GE, as well as all its assets, then the market capitalization of the three new divisions should be between $130-140 billion, or (approximately!) $125 per share. This is more than 70% more than the current $73-75 per GE share.n⠀nIt is still possible to buy the «old papers» of General Electric: subsequently, even a simple exchange for shares in three separate companies will already be profitable. Whatever the final value of the stock, the collapse of GE is just what this famous business needs to revive.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #GeneralElectric #forexnews #SP500index #GEHealthcare #GEAerospace #GERenewableEnergy

🔥 Europe vs Asia: the battle for heatn⠀n👉 Today published fresh reports of the IEA and OPEC. Details of the oil market are, of course, interesting, but the global problem of the redistribution of energy resources is much more complicated. Recall: Europe has embarked on a policy of abandoning Russian energy carriers and is trying to form a serious reserve of natural gas and coal. But its chance to stay warm this coming winter depends on the three Asian countries.n⠀nJapan, South Korea and China − the largest importers of LNG and coal − have the same peak energy demand season as Europe. The weather is a constant source of force majeure, especially for Japan and Korea. Energy-intensive coal, which is used by economical Asians, is in speculative demand and is supplied only under long-term contracts.n⠀nChina is in a more comfortable situation. Record coal production, combined with low demand for electricity, has led to the fact that the reserves of this raw material have already reached a historical maximum.n⠀nEurope is actively reducing gas consumption and increasing LNG imports to fill storage facilities, as well as restarting coal-fired power plants. Global competition for fuel is complicated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. European Commission will introduce a complete ban on Russian coal from next week, there is no full-fledged replacement for these energy resources yet.n⠀nThe disruption of trade flows causes prices to rise wildly. Smaller countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan are already suffering from daily power outages because they cannot afford to buy the required amount of energy at current prices.n⠀nIt's too early to make predictions, but if there is a very cold winter, Asia will need additional volumes and a fierce market war with European consumers is inevitable.n⠀nNow it is important to seize the moment when Japan and South Korea start building up their gas reserves. Then a new wave of price growth will appear on the LNG spot market, and you and I will have a chance to make good money.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #iea #opec #forexnews #lng #coal #RussianEnergy #worldnews

☝️Political PR against stability: why the Taiwan scandal is dangerousn⠀n🔥 Asian markets continue to be nervous. Officially, the United States remains committed to the policy of one China, but at the same time, Washington de facto supported Pelosi's scandalous visit to the island, which China considers its territory. The formal results of the visit look dull, but it risks becoming a trigger for a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait.n⠀nThe most pessimistic and even apocalyptic scenarios did not materialize. Dollar strengthened its position in the short term, Beijing limited itself to military exercises around the island, the introduction of economic restrictions on Taiwan and personally against the speaker of the US Congress and her relatives.n⠀nChina has already stopped supplying natural sand to the island and has officially blocked the import of local citrus fruits and fish; a ban on the import of high-tech chips has not yet been considered. But these restrictions are enough to cause a short-term panic, stock market fluctuations, a decrease in economic activity and active capital flight from the main Asian assets. The Taiwanese dollar fell to two-year lows.n⠀nOfficially, Beijing has already completed military exercises in the area of the busiest international waterways and air routes, but the formal blockade of the island remains. Gradually, other countries in the region, such as Japan, are also involved in the conflict. Large players avoid active purchases of the dollar and the Chinese yuan and move the capital to the yen.nnLocal elections are scheduled to take place in Taiwan on November 26, and until then, China should assess the chance for a "peaceful reunification" of the island and the mainland. If Beijing decides that there is no chance, then a military conflict is inevitable. The economic consequences of such a war would be severe and, for some countries and industries, catastrophic.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #Taiwan #forexnews #AsianMarkets #Pelosi #worldnews #TaiwaneseDollar #Beijing

💡 Inflation Reduction Act: Fed steps in, but does not guarantee the resultn⠀n👉 Fed's priority remains to bring inflation down to 2%, and for this, the base rate was raised again by 0.75%. The new law passed on Sunday without Republican support by parliamentary consensus, will be the main course of action for the Democrats and personally Joe Biden.n⠀nThe «price of the document» is $400 billion. The law provides for funding initiatives in the field of «clean» energy, reducing healthcare costs, creating new jobs and increasing taxes for large businesses, mainly industrial corporations. Some of the topics in the Law that are worth paying attention to are:n⠀n• Cheap drugs - prescription onlynMedicare will be able to negotiate prices for some expensive drugs with prescription drug manufacturers. There will also be a $2,000 per year limit on out-of-pocket expenses for Medicare members. However, critics argue that the new policy will hamper pharmaceutical companies' innovation.n⠀n• Tax incentives for buyers of electric vehiclesnAn investment of $369 billion is envisaged: the money will go to solar panels, wind turbines and other sources of clean energy.n⠀n• Increasing corporate taxesnCompanies with at least $1 billion in revenue will apply a 15% tax rate on balance sheet income, which should generate $313 billion in new revenue.n⠀n• Share repurchase taxnA 1% excise tax on share repurchases could bring in about $74 billion and have a massive impact on the entire market.nAccording to the latest version published by the Senate, about $433 billion will be spent on new investments, the state budget deficit should decrease by $300 billion. Of course, reducing the deficit can curb demand in the economy and help lower prices, but the overall effect of the implementation of this Law is estimated to be weak. His political task is much more serious - to support the Biden team before the autumn elections.n⠀nLet's see how the real dollar reacts to this.n⠀nProfits to y’all!n⠀n#ForexChief #Fed #forexnews #JoeBiden #dollar #worldnews #Medicare